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First, we remove the trend and focus on fluctuations away from the trend.
Second, we remove the high frequency fluctuations (below two years) and the low frequency fluctuations (above eight years).
In the Indian setting, several papers have worked on the problem of identifying dates of turning points of the business cycle (Dua and Banerji, 2000, Chitre, 2001, Patnaik and Sharma, 2002, Mohanty et.al, 2003).
One approach to business cycle measurement focuses on ‘growth cycles’, and relies on de-trending procedures to extract the cyclical component of output.
The first milestone in this journey is sound procedures for seasonal adjustment of a large number of macroeconomic time series.
At NIPFP, we have built this knowledge in the last decade, and insights from this work are presented in Bhattacharya et. The next milestone is dates of turning points of the business cycle.
As an example, the standard operating procedure when drawing the chart of a macroeconomic time-series is to show a shaded background for the period which was a contraction.
In addition to a paper web page, we have a system web page which gives a file with dates at a fixed URL and can be used e.g. The graph above shows the familiar series of seasonally adjusted annualised growth, of the net sales of non-financial non-oil firms, with shaded bars showing downturns.The starting point of all these glamorous things, however, is measurement.The major barrier to doing Indian macroeconomics is the lack of the foundations of business cycle measurement.And professionally it does make a lot of difference.Most macroeconomics is about business cycle fluctuations.